Northfield Instruments – a full DCF
Assumptions. Revenue of 1,000 growing 8% a year for ten years, a 25% EBITDA margin, D&A of 4% and capex of 5% of revenue, working capital of 10% of each revenue increase, 25% tax, a 9% WACC, 2% terminal growth, net debt of 500 and 100 million shares.
What drives the result. Free cash flow grows from 151 in year 1 to 302 in year 10. The ten years of cash flow are worth 1,332 today, but the terminal value is worth 1,934: about 59% of the enterprise value of 3,266. After net debt, equity is 2,766, or €27.66 per share.
One insight. Because most of the value sits in the terminal value, the discount rate matters a lot: at an 8% WACC the value per share rises to roughly €34, at 10% it falls to roughly €23. A one-point change in WACC moves the answer by about 20% either way. Check the sensitivity table after loading.
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